Tustin, CA, United States – November 11, 2026 – A lot of people who try futures trading start with one idea: get good enough at reading charts, and you will know where the market is headed. Aaron Aubrey Navies says that idea is backward.
“New traders think the goal is to be right,” Navies says. “They watch a trade work out and think that proves they understood the market. Then the next trade goes against them and they can’t explain why, because they were never trading a method. They were trading a guess that happened to land.”
He says this belief is common because it feels true in small doses. A trader can be wrong more often than right and still make money, if the wins are structured to be bigger than the losses. A trader can call the market correctly most of the week and still lose money, if one bad trade is sized too large. Navies says that second case is the one people never see coming.
What Being Funded Taught Him
Navies became a certified funded trader with Topstep Futures. He says that experience changed how he thinks about accuracy versus process.
“Being funded isn’t about having a hot streak,” he says. “It’s about showing you can follow a set of rules under real conditions, including the conditions where you’re wrong. Nobody asks how many trades you called correctly. They look at whether your losses stayed small and whether your account survived the trades that didn’t work.”
He says that distinction is where most self-taught traders get stuck. They judge a system by its win rate instead of by what happens when it loses.
Process Over Prediction
Navies points to his own daily habits as an example. He trades futures in the mornings, on a schedule, rather than watching the market all day waiting for a feeling to strike.
“If I need to predict correctly to make the plan work, the plan is already broken,” he says. “I want a plan that holds up whether I’m right or wrong on any single trade. That means knowing my exit before I enter, and treating that exit as part of the trade, not as a failure of the trade.”
He says this is also where his interest in Buddhism shapes his approach. Buddhism has influenced how he thinks about attachment to outcomes.
“You can get attached to being right the same way you get attached to money,” Navies says. “Both attachments make you trade worse. Letting go of the need to be right on any one trade is what lets you stick with a process long enough for the process to work.”
Why This Matters for New Traders
Navies says the prediction myth does real damage because it points beginners at the wrong skill. They spend their time trying to improve their market calls instead of their risk management.
“If someone asked me what to study first, I wouldn’t say chart patterns,” he says. “I’d say position size and exit rules. Those are the parts of a trade you control completely. Where the market goes next, you don’t control at all.”
He says traders who accept that early tend to last longer than traders who are chasing a higher win rate.
“The traders who quit usually quit because one trade wiped out ten good ones,” Navies says. “That’s not bad luck. That’s a system built on being right instead of a system built to survive being wrong.”
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About Aaron Aubrey Navies
Aaron Aubrey Navies works as an appointment setter in Santa Ana, California, and lives in Tustin, California. He was a certified funded trader with Topstep Futures and trades futures each morning as part of his daily routine. He was born in Costa Mesa, California, and attended Golden West College and Elsinore High School.
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Media ContactCompany Name: Aaron Aubrey NaviesContact Person: Media RelationsEmail: Send EmailCountry: United StatesWebsite: aaronnavies.com
